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Forecasting

March 2021: Trends in Estimated Load Impacts of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies on European and North American Electricity Consumption

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March 2020 through Mid-March 2021

As previously discussed in the first of this blog series on April 13, 2020, as lockdown policies are enacted to help reduce the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the Itron Forecasting Team is leveraging publicly available hourly load data for most North American Independent System Operators (ISOs) and a select set of European countries to build a picture of the load impacts by region. To assess the load impact of COVID-19 mitigation strategies, actual loads when many of these policies began are compared to baseline loads without COVID-19 policy impacts.

Across Europe and North America, the biggest estimated load reductions occurred in April 2020 with an estimated reduction in average daily load between -12.3% and -7.2%. Google Mobility data suggests a new normal of more people at home than pre-COVID.

For a detailed summary of the estimated load impacts, go to the forecasting website to download the latest COVID-19 Load Impact memo.

The Itron Forecasting Team will continue to post updated summary blogs and corresponding memos on the trends. Subscribe to our blog to be notified of new posts and contact us at forecasting@itron.com if you have further questions.

Estimated Daily Average Energy Impact Wedge