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Forecasting

June 18 Update: Latest Trends in Estimated Load Impacts of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies

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This data is for March 15, 2020 – June 14, 2020.

As previously discussed in the first blog of this series on April 13, the Itron Forecasting Team is leveraging publicly available hourly load data for most North American Independent System Operators (ISOs) to build a picture of the load impacts of COVID-19 mitigation policies by region. To do this, actual loads when many of these policies began are compared to baseline loads without COVID-19 policy impacts.

Total ISO Impacts: Total ISO load is computed as the sum of the hourly loads across the nine ISOs for which hourly load data is publicly available. The figure below shows the average daily load reduction pre- and post- reopening of the economy for the total and individual ISOs.
  • Pre-Reopening of the Economy: For the aggregate ISO load, the average estimated impact is a reduction in average loads of about -7.5% over the period March 29 through May 17 when most COVID-19 mitigation policies were enacted.
  • Phased Reopening of the Economy: the period of May 18 through June 14 marks the start of the phased re-opening of the of the economy. Over this period, the reduction in average loads is estimated to be -3.4%, which represents a gain in average daily power consumption of about 4.0%.



For a detailed summary of the estimated load impacts for each region, go to the forecasting website to download the latest COVID-19 Load Impact memo.

The Itron Forecasting Team will continue to post updated summary blogs and corresponding memos on these trends.

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