Alternative Approaches to Constructing Forecast Prediction Intervals

Start:  12/7/2021

End:  12/7/2021

Location:  WebEx

Type:  Webinars

Presenter:  Frank Monforte

Primary Contact:  Paige Schaefer

System operators ensure there is always sufficient electricity to “keep the lights on” by setting minimum generation reserve margins to avoid generation shortages. Historically, operating reserve margins were set to handle unplanned outages of one or more traditional generation units and load forecast errors. With the growing penetration of embedded generation resources, load forecast uncertainty has grown leading to reserve margins being stretched to cover the added load volatility. This brown bag introduces alternative approaches to developing load forecast prediction intervals that capture the main sources of the load forecast uncertainty.
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