Short-term Forecasting Solutions
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If you dispatch electric generation, schedule gas deliveries, buy energy on spot
markets or have excess capacity to sell, you need accurate load forecasts. Timely
delivery of accurate forecasts is essential for making the difficult decisions required
by today's energy markets. Itron is at the forefront of delivering Short-term Forecasting
Systems that deliver accurate forecasts fast, so you have the time to make the right
decisions.
Itron's Short-term Forecasting System can be designed to be fully automated on a
production server, scheduled to run at high frequency or partially automated, by
making the publish action a manual operation. The system also includes client software
that allows the operator to examine model forecasts, similar day data, and recent
model performance in order to construct and publish a final forecast. Itron's Short-term
Forecasting System can be configured to meet your needs.
Typical applications for Itron's Short-term Forecasting Systems include:
- Day ahead forecasting of electric loads for generation scheduling
- Same day electric forecasting for unit dispatch
- Daily or hourly gas send out forecasting
- Short-term market price forecasting
Itron's Short-term Forecasting System simplifies and automates operational forecasting.
Forecast loads and prices by transmission zone from minutes ahead to several months
out. Import via the Internet, weather forecasts from one or more weather stations
and one or more weather service providers with all weather concepts supported. High
and low forecasts are available that account for any weather forecast uncertainty.
Multiple-region forecasts can tie out to a system total or build up to the system
total. Prior hour loads can be used to drive the forecast. The user can also view
similar-day results to compare load forecasts to days with similar weather and calendar
conditions and use these days to modify the forecast if necessary. A variety of
on-line Quick Edit tools are available to refine the model forecasts. Automation
scripts flag errors in weather and load data, providing error trapping automatically.
Itron's Short-term Forecasting System integrates with your existing systems, providing
real-time forecasting capabilities.
Itron's Short-term Forecasting System uses MetrixND to estimate statistical models
of customer usage patterns MetrixND is a flexible modelling tool, widely used by
energy forecasters throughout the world. MetrixND puts the most advanced modelling
techniques at your fingertips: an advanced neural network, regression, exponential
smoothing, and ARIMA. Designed to take advantage of advanced Windows capabilities,
the intuitive user interface and drag-and-drop architecture streamlines the development
of forecasting variables and models. Evaluation graphs, statistics, and reports
are readily available to assist in analyzing forecasts. This interactive design
strategy allows the forecast analyst to quickly evaluate alternative models and
select the model that works best for their particular data.
Accurate forecasts can provide a quick payback on your investment, so why wait?
Act now and have a system in place before your peak season. Call us at +31 20 60
65 225 or send an email to forecasting@itron.com
for more information or to schedule a live software demonstration.
System Features
Customised Configurations
Configured to forecast loads and prices from an hour ahead to several months out.
The forecast model is tailored to your needs, allowing you to use the most accurate
methods.
Weather Forecasts
Import via the Internet, weather forecasts from one or more weather stations and
one or more weather service providers. All weather concepts are supported including
temperature, humidity, dew point, cloud cover, wind speed, and precipitation.
Prior Hour Loads
The system can be configured to use prior hour loads to drive the forecast.
Error Trapping
Automation scripts can be configured to flag errors in weather and load data.
Multiple Regions
Multiple-region forecasts can be calibrated to tie out to a forecast for the system
total or they can be aggregated up to give the forecast for the system total.
Large Customers
Large customers can be treated separately from the rest of the system.
Forecast Uncertainty
High and low forecasts are available that account for weather forecast uncertainty
and model uncertainty.
Similar-Day Module
The forecast operator can use the similar-day results to compare forecasted loads
to days with similar weather and calendar conditions and to use these days to modify
the forecast if necessary.
On-line Review
A variety of on-line Quick Edit tools are available for refining the model forecasts.
Publishing
Forecast results and corresponding weather data can be published by the forecast
operator to a variety of file formats including custom formats to support downstream
applications.
Integrates with Existing Databases
The system can be tailored to work with your existing databases, including Access®,
MV-90, MV-Star, ORACLE®, SQL Server®, and SAP®.
One System Meets Many Needs
Because there is a range of business processes in place, several deployment options
are available.
- Workstation vs. Client-Server. Delivered as a stand-alone desktop
application or can be configured as a multi-user client-server application.
- Web-Based Delivery. Web versions are available for situations where
there are multiple forecast operators or the operators are geographically dispersed.
Call us at +31 20 60 65 225 or send an email to
forecasting@itron.com for more information or to schedule a live software
demonstration.
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