Delivery Point Forecasting Solutions
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If you broker power and transmission capacity or work with energy data for a large
number of delivery points, then competitive wholesale energy markets place a financial
premium on your short-term load forecasts. Timely delivery of accurate forecasts
is essential for making the hard decisions required by today's energy markets. Itron's
Delivery Point Forecasting System is designed to provide detailed and accurate forecasts
when you need them, so you have the time to make the right decisions.
Itron's Delivery Point Forecasting System generates forecasts for a list of large
individual customers or aggregations of customers. The delivery points can represent
individual customer loads, wholesale loads, city gate deliveries, or aggregate take
outs. The system provides a set of forecast model templates that are assigned based
on the energy use patterns of each point. This allows simple models to be used for
calendar-driven loads, while more complex models are used for loads driven by weather,
price, or other factors. Employing MetrixND®
as the forecast engine, Itron's system allows the user to assign one of the preconfigured
modelling templates to each forecasting task, or to develop a customised model for
a specific forecast element. Whether you operate in a single market region or multiple
market regions, the Delivery Point Forecasting System can be configured and scaled
to meet your needs.
Typical applications for Itron's Delivery Point Forecasting Systems include:
- Forecasting direct serve customer loads
- Forecasting wholesale electric loads
- Forecasting substation loads
- Forecasting gas deliveries by city gate
- Forecasting transmission system flows
Itron's Delivery Point Forecasting System simplifies and automates delivery point
forecasting. It also provides an interface to the database, allowing the user to
manage the list of meters and review interactively data and models for these meters.
Forecast sub-hourly, hourly, or daily loads for the balance-of-the-current day,
the next few days, or several months out. Import via the Internet, weather forecasts
from one or more weather stations and one or more weather service providers with
all weather concepts supported. Built-in validation routines flag errors in weather
and load data, providing error trapping automatically for the user. Delivery point
forecasts can be reviewed individually or in aggregate by take out point. A variety
of on-line Quick Edit tools are available to refine the model forecasts. Itron's
Delivery Point Forecasting System is easily integrated with upstream and downstream
systems, providing automated real-time forecasting capabilities.
Itron's Delivery Point Forecasting System uses MetrixND to estimate statistical
models of delivery point loads and to calculate forecasts using these models. MetrixND
is a flexible modelling tool, widely used by energy forecasters throughout the world.
MetrixND puts the most advanced modelling techniques at your fingertips: an advanced
neural network, regression, exponential smoothing, and ARIMA. Designed to take advantage
of advanced Windows capabilities, the intuitive user interface and drag-and-drop
architecture streamlines the development of forecasting variables and models. Evaluation
graphs, statistics, and reports are readily available to assist in analyzing forecasts.
This interactive design strategy allows the forecast analyst to quickly evaluate
alternative models and select the model that works best for their particular data.
Accurate forecasts can provide a quick payback on your investment, so why wait?
Act now and have a system in place before your peak season. Call us at +31 20 60
65 225 or send an email to forecasting@itron.com
for more information or to schedule a live software demonstration.
System Features
Customised Configurations
Configured to forecast wholesale loads for individual delivery points or groups
of delivery points. The system can be scheduled to update as needed during the day.
Modelling Flexibility
The user manages the list of delivery points. Delivery points may be modelled individually,
or the metered loads can be aggregated into a meter group, allowing forecast models
to be applied to the group as a whole. A wide range of modelling methods is available
and there is no limit to the types of explanatory variables that can be used.
Built-in Scoring Algorithm
A built-in scoring algorithm is included to help identify the best model type for
each case. The scoring statistics generated quantify load variability and the importance
of calendar effects, daily weather and price sensitivity. As an option, rules can
be implemented to automatically assign methods to each forecast element.
Rapid Model Estimation
Once a method is selected either manually or by automatic assignment, the model
is populated with data from the meter or profile database tables, model weather
data for the appropriate weather zone, the forecast model coefficients are estimated,
and the estimated model is saved for use in forecast generation. These steps take
a few seconds for each model that needs to be estimated. Estimated models can be
exported for detailed analysis and development of refinements to the specification.
Rapid Forecast Execution
Estimated models are used to generate forecasts on a scheduled basis or on demand.
Forecast execution takes a few seconds per modelled item. If recent data are available
for calibration, forecasts are adjusted based on this recent history, using the
dynamic learning algorithm.
Weather Forecasts
Import via the Internet, weather forecasts from one or more weather stations and
one or more weather service providers. All weather concepts are supported including
temperature, humidity, dew point, cloud cover, wind speed, and precipitation.
Prior Hour Loads
The system can be configured to use real-time meter reads to drive the forecast.
Error Trapping
Built-in validation routines flag errors in weather and load data.
On-line Review
A variety of on-line Quick Edit tools are available for refining the model forecasts.
Publishing
Forecast results and corresponding weather data can be published by the forecast
operator to a variety of file formats including custom formats to support downstream
applications.
Integrates with Existing Databases
Tailored to work with your existing databases, including Access®, MV-90, MV-Star,
ORACLE®, SQL Server®, and SAP®.
Call us at +31 20 60 65 225 or send an email to
forecasting@itron.com for more information or to schedule a live software
demonstration.
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