Forecasting Bios

Dr. J. Stuart McMenamin Vice President at Itron, where he specialises in the fields of energy economics, statistical modelling, and software development. Over the last 20 years, he has managed numerous projects in the areas of system load forecasting, price forecasting, retail load forecasting, end-use modelling, regional modelling, load shape development, and utility data analysis. In addition to directing large analysis projects, Dr. McMenamin directs the development of Itron's forecasting software products (MetrixND, NDauto, ProForm, MetrixLT, and SitePro). He has also directed the development of software packages for external clients, including the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) end-use models (REEPS, COMMEND, and INFORM), regional economic forecasting packages, and home energy rating software.

In prior jobs, Dr. McMenamin conducted research in the telecommunications industry, worked on the President's Council of Wage and Price Stability under the Carter Administration, and lectured in economics at the University of California, San Diego.

Dr. McMenamin received his B.A. in Mathematics and Economics from Occidental College and his Ph.D. in Economics from UCSD.

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Mr. Eric Fox. Mr. Eric Fox is a Director of Forecasting at Itron, where he directs forecasting and energy analysis projects and manages Itron's Northeast office. Mr. Fox has over 15 years of forecasting experience with extensive expertise in electric and gas demand forecasting.

Most recently, Mr. Fox has been focused on developing forecast systems to support operations in the competitive power market. Recent projects include development of short-term hourly load forecasting models using advanced Artificial Neural Network models, implementation of integrated sales and revenue forecasting system, development of spot price forecasting models, and constructing retail market portfolio forecasting systems. He also continues to develop and direct implementation of long-term end-use and hourly load and peak forecasts for numerous utilities. Current work in this area involves integrating end-use modelling concepts into an econometric forecasting framework.

Mr. Fox is also one of Itron's primary instructors. He provides forecast training through workshops sponsored by Itron, utility onsite training programs and workshops held by other organizations including EPRI and the Institute of Business Forecasting. Mr. Fox has also provided testimony and directed regulatory workshops related to forecasting and rate design issues.

Prior to joining Itron, Mr. Fox supervised the load research group at New England Electric where he oversaw systems development, directed load research programs, and customer load analysis. He also worked in the Rate Department as a Principal Analyst where he was responsible for DSM rate and incentive filings, and related cost studies.

Mr. Fox received his B.A. and M.A. in Economics from San Diego State University.

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Dr. Frank A. Monforte is Director of Forecasting at Itron, where he is a leading authority in the areas of short-term load forecasting, load profiling, retail scheduling, end-use forecasting, and statistical and mathematical modelling. Dr. Monforte directs the development, support, and implementation of Itron's forecasting and load profiling tools, including MetrixND, NDauto, and ProForm. Dr. Monforte's short-term load forecasting expertise includes models for the New York ISO, California ISO, PJM, NEPOOL, and the Australian System Operator, NEMMCO. Dr. Monforte directs the implementation of Itron's load profiling systems, including systems in California, Illinois, and Texas. As the lead econometrician, Dr. Monforte was part of the team that developed the ERCOT Load Profiling System. Examples of retail scheduling system implementations he has directed include BPA, PPL, SCE, SDG&E, LCRA, Enron, Ameren, Illinois Power, and Alliant. In addition to these systems, Dr. Monforte directs the implementation of Itron's Web-based forecasting tools and services, including eMetrix, My eMetrix, and eShapes. Dr. Monforte is the lead architect of Gaz de France's Web-based forecasting system, which is the first of its kind in the industry. He also directed the implementation of Ameren's Web-based Load Profile Forecasting application that provides on-line load profile forecasts that retailers use in support of their market operations.

In addition to his forecasting responsibilities, he is a nationally recognised authority in the area of industrial end-use analysis. He has directed numerous commercial and industrial on-site survey projects. He has developed market potential estimates and forecasts for industrial technologies for both utilities and EPRI. He is the principal investigator for EPRI's industrial end-use forecasting model, INFORM. He is a principal investigator for an EPRI-sponsored study on the environmental benefits of increased electrification in the residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.

Dr. Monforte has co-authored award-winning publications on a range of problems including the use of neural networks for short-term load forecasting, long-term end-use forecasting, and the use of nonlinear programming techniques for development of a least cost gas supply planning tool.

Dr. Monforte received his B.A. in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley and his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, San Diego.

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Mr. Casey Allred, Software Engineer, has extensive experience with numerous programming languages including Visual C++, Visual Basic, ASP, JavaScript, and VBScript. He has worked with many of the Microsoft technologies including ActiveX Data Objects (ADO), the Component Object, Model (COM), the Distributed Component Object Model (DCOM), Message Queue (MSMQ), and Microsoft's Transaction Server (MTS). Mr. Allred was the lead programmer for the TXU Short-Term Profiling System and Retail Forecast Viewer application, the Lower Colorado River Authority Forecasting System, and the ERCOT Profiling System. Additional development efforts include the Portland General Electric Load Planning System and the California ISO Load Forecasting System, a client/server forecasting application. He is also responsible for the Oracle implementations at Itron. This role requires experience using many of Oracle's development and administrative tools.

Before joining Itron, Mr. Allred was a consultant with American Management Systems in Fairfax, Virginia. While there, he worked on a number of projects, including developing document imaging and workflow software to handle incoming income tax forms for the State of Kansas and implementing a card remittance processing system for USBank. Following those projects, he moved on to development of a proprietary imaging and workflow baseline product that was fully customisable for different industries and systems, upgrading it from a thick client environment to a distributed environment using Microsoft's COM technology.

Mr. Allred received a B.E. in Computer Science and Computer Engineering from Vanderbilt University.

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Ms. Shannon Ashburn. Ms. Ashburn is a Marketing Administrator at Itron. She develops and executes direct marketing strategy for the Forecasting and Product Divisions. Ms. Ashburn reviews and administers contracts and license agreements, manages forecast workshops, and oversees software distribution and project activity. In addition, Ms. Ashburn assists in developing project documentation, provides data analysis support, and performs miscellaneous research. Ms. Ashburn received a B.A. in Environmental Design & Analysis from the University of California at Irvine.

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Mr. Cody Barnes joined Itron as a software engineer in 2001. Mr. Barnes is experienced with several programming languages and technologies such as C/C++, MFC, ATL, Visual Basic, VBScript, ASP, Java, JavaScript, and Perl. He has experience working with many database platforms including Oracle 8 and 9, MSQL, Access, and others. Mr. Barnes works with the software development team to implement user interfaces, COM and automation structures, data visualisation methods, and other software development related tasks. Current and past projects for Itron include implementing the graphics for the MetrixND 4.0, working as lead developer for MetrixWP, and several Forecast Studio implementations. Although Mr. Barnes works mostly with Windows platform development, he is also the in-house Linux expert.

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Mr. Dave Fabiszak. Mr. Fabiszak, Software Engineer has over ten years of professional programming experience in C, C++, PASCAL, FORTRAN, VB, and SAS. Mr. Fabiszak joined Itron as a Programmer in early 1990. His primary responsibility is to implement the conceptual program design. Mr. Fabiszak is responsible for managing complex data structures, implementing custom user interfaces, implementing custom file formats, and developing graphics routines. His expertise is in graphical presentation of user data and program results. He has experience writing compilers, which has resulted in software that can accept user-defined equations. This feature has been incorporated into all the energy-analysis software. Mr. Fabiszak is one of the lead programmers on MetrixND.

Mr. Fabiszak has also had extensive experience in commercial energy analysis, including design and implementation of stock accounting algorithms, technology choice models, decision models, and user-defined equations. He was the lead programmer for EPRI's COMMEND and INFORM and assisted with the development of REEPS. He was also instrumental in providing user support and training.

Mr. Fabiszak received his BS in Computer Science from the University of Maryland.

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Ms. Christine Fordham. Ms. Fordham is a Senior Consultant in the Forecasting Division, where she specialises in design and implementation of leading-edge forecasting systems. Ms. Fordham has extensive experience with implementing forecasting systems using enterprise relational databases including Oracle 8i and 9i and Microsoft SQL Server. Ms. Fordham has implemented systems to forecast system loads, transmission zone loads, market prices, retail profiles, and utility or provider of last resort loads for utilities in the United States and Canada. She has developed short-term gas forecasting systems for gas companies in Europe and the United States. She has also implemented long-term forecasting systems using end-use models for numerous utilities.

Since joining Itron in 1992, Ms. Fordham has been involved in all aspects of data analysis at Itron. Ms. Fordham is the project developer for the eShapes product and has assisted in development of the SitePro prototype library. She has also been responsible for development of hourly normal and extreme weather series for use in building simulation and forecasting applications. She is an expert SAS programmer and has developed code libraries for sample design, survey expansion, and market profiles for both mail and on-site surveys. In the area of load shape analysis, she has developed SAS code libraries to perform disaggregation of load research data into end-use load shapes. This library includes extensive graphing capabilities that allow for visual checks of all steps of the analysis.

Ms. Fordham received her B.S. in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1988.

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Mr. Jeffrey Fordham is a Software Engineer with Itron. He has experience with a variety of programming languages including Visual C++ with ATL and MFC, Java, Visual Basic, JavaScript, VBScript, ColdFusion, and SQL. Mr. Fordham's primary responsibilities include implementing Internet, database, and client/server technologies, which include ActiveX Data Objects (ADO) and the Component Object Model (COM/DCOM). Mr. Fordham uses these languages and technologies to access a variety of backend database servers, including Oracle, SQL Server, and Access.

Mr. Fordham is the lead Web application developer at Itron and makes use of various dynamic Internet technologies such as Active Server Pages (ASP) and ColdFusion. He is also the lead programmer for the Gaz De France Web-based short-term gas forecasting system and the Colorado Housing and Finance Authority (CHFA) Internet-based client/server Rating Management System.

Mr. Fordham is also principally involved in developing Itron's eMetrix, eShapes, NDauto, MetrixIDR, and MetrixLT products.

Mr. Fordham received a B.S. in Computer Science from San Diego State University.

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Ms. Laurie LaBrie. Ms. Laurie LaBrie is a Senior Analyst with Itron's Forecasting Division and has been with Itron for seven years. She supports data analysis and programming requirements. Her expertise is in the design and development of relational database application and reporting systems. These systems are designed to provide an easy-to-use front-end tool for users to store and report data. Ms. LaBrie is the lead developer of Forecast Manager, a sales forecasting and weather normalization system that has been implemented for several utilities including National Grid, NStar, United Illuminating, and PP&L. In addition, Ms. LaBrie has developed a Monthly Revenue Forecasting Module (MRev) for Forecast Manager, which has been implemented for several utilities. She was also the lead developer of a "Peak Demand System" that can forecast peak requirements for over 1000 delivery points. Ms. LaBrie received a B.S. in Mathematics from the University of Vermont in 1990 and an M.S. in Computer Information Systems at Bentley College in Massachusetts in May 2000.

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Mr. Scott Nelson recently joined Itron as an Analyst in the Forecasting Division. He has assisted in the implementation of MetrixIDR, Itron's retail and wholesale forecasting system, and load modelling projects for EKPC, TXU, and NYISO. In addition he has been involved with the California Energy Use Survey (CEUS), a survey of 2,000 commercial buildings for the California Energy Commision. Mr. Nelson's specialty is in econometric modelling and time series analysis.

Mr. Nelson received a B.S. in Management Science from the University of California, San Diego in 2003.

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Mr. John Pritchard Mr. Pritchard is the Software Development Manager at Itron with over 13 years experience in the industry. His experience covers all aspects of Win32 applications programming with extensive expertise in COM programming, scripting support within applications, and three-tier client/server architecture. Mr. Pritchard directs the development of Itron's software products.

Mr. Pritchard has extensive knowledge about the software development process, as well as a thorough understanding of energy analysis and forecasting. For this reason, Mr. Pritchard is lead architect for MetrixND, NDauto, ProForm, SitePro, and many other Itron's software products. Mr. Pritchard is involved with the implementation of many of Itron's customised forecasting systems and facilitates Itron's training workshops and user group meetings.

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Mr. Mark Quan. Mr. Quan is a Senior Forecast Analyst with Itron's Forecasting Division. Since joining Itron in 1997, Mr. Quan has specialised in energy forecasting and mathematical modelling. Mr. Quan has developed and implemented several automated forecasting systems to predict next day system demand, load profiles, and retail consumption for companies throughout the United States and Canada. Examples of this work include a short-term forecasting system for the NYISO, a retail system for Nicor Energy, and a load profiling system for Dayton Power and Light. These systems combine sophisticated econometric modelling with easy-to-use interfaces.

Mr. Quan also conducts several of Itron's forecasting workshops and customised training sessions. His breadth of forecasting experience in both regulated and liberalised markets makes Mr. Quan ideally suited to teaching practical solutions to difficult forecasting problems.

Prior to joining Itron, Mr. Quan worked in the gas, electric, and corporate functions at Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), where he was involved in industry restructuring, electric planning, and natural gas planning. Mr. Quan received an M.S. in Operations Research from Stanford University and a B.S. in Applied Mathematics from the University of California at Los Angeles.

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Ms. Paige Schaefer is a Marketing Coordinator and Senior Forecast Analyst at Itron. As Marketing Coordinator, she is responsible for marketing forecasting products and services along with conceiving, designing, and implementing Itron's on-line marketing campaigns. Ms. Schaefer also develops content and maintains the overall look and feel of Itron's forecasting website. As a member of the software development teams, she provides product development management, graphical, documentation, and technical support for the MetrixND, NDauto, ProForm, MetrixLT, eShapes, and SitePro products.

In the role of Senior Forecast Analyst, Ms. Schaefer has extensive experience in residential sector end-use data analysis and modelling. She has performed data analysis for REEPS model implementations for numerous utilities around the country and has assisted in the development of national end-use forecasts using REEPS. Ms. Schaefer also has widespread knowledge in the areas of mail, telephone, and Internet-based surveys. Ms. Schaefer is co-founder of Itron's Energy Forecasting Group (EFG), which provides technical support for EPRI's end-use models (REEPS, COMMEND, and INFORM), end-use data development, and an annual meeting for discussing end-use modelling and forecasting issues.

Ms. Schaefer received a B.S. in Business Administration from San Diego State University with an emphasis in Marketing.

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Mr. Richard Simons is a Senior Analyst with Itron's Forecasting Division. Since joining Itron in 2000, Mr. Simons has developed and implemented long- and short-term forecasting systems for numerous electricity, natural gas, and water utilities. Examples of this work include a day-ahead forecasting system for Public Service Electric & Gas and Consolidated Edison and a long-term electricity forecasting/weather-variance/reporting system for several utilities, including PPL, NStar, National Grid, Orlando Utilities Commission, and Tampa Electric.

Prior to joining Itron, Mr. Simons was an Economist with the Energy Services Department of WEFA, Inc. (now Global Insight). During his three years at WEFA, Mr. Simons' work consisted of long-term forecasting of the natural gas and electricity markets. Additionally, his work at WEFA involved consulting projects for natural gas pipelines, electric utilities, and industry groups. As a graduate student, Mr. Simons focused on the economic benefits of land conservation. His work was published in the Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. Mr. Simons received his B.A. in Economics, as well as Environmental Analysis & Policy, from Boston University. He received his M.S. in Resource Administration & Management from the University of New Hampshire.

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